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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Opinion polling ahead of the 14 May legislative elections continue to point to a tight race between the main opposition populist Pheu Thai (PT) party of Paetongtarn Shinawatra and the pro-democracy liberal Move Forward party of Pita Limjaroenrat. Party opinion polling in recent weeks has shown PT leading in most cases, while those polls showing a preferred prime minister show Pita holding a lead since mid-April.
- The reversion in the House of Representatives to the pre-2017 parallel voting system means that 400 of the 500 seats are decided via first-past-the-post plurality voting in single-member constituencies. This in turn increases the prospect of a single party winning an overall majority in the chamber.
- Crucially, the next PM will be chosen in a joint session of parliament, with all 500 members of the House and 250 members of the Senate (appointed by the military junta) electing the PM. This drastically reduces the prospect of Pita (an avowed opponent of the military junta) becoming PM unless Move Forward significantly outperform polls. Even in this scenario there would be a strong prospect of action from the military in the subsequent weeks or months.
- A more likely scenario could be PT candidate Paetongtarn being supported by the Palang Pracharat party of current First Deputy PM Prawit Wongsuwan and other either pro-military or pro-monarchy parties currently supporting the gov't.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling by Party (LHS) and by Preferred PM (RHS), %
Source: Nation, NIDA, Daily News X Matichon, Suan Dusit, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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