Poor Election For Macron's Bloc, But Set To Remain Largest Grouping

Mujtaba Rahman at Eurasia Group tweets an interesting thread on the first round of the French legislative election that took place yesterday. Second round takes place 19 June. Select comments below:

• "[...] The official figures, published in the early hours, show Emmanuel Macron's alliance edged 1st place in popular vote with 25.75%, just ahead of the Left-Green alliance [NUPES] with 25.66% "
• "[...] So who REALLY “won” yest? Arguably, nobody. It was worst 1st round legislative elex performance by allies of newly elected Pres in 5th Republic (ie since 1965). Macron's alliance looks certain nonetheless to win biggest bloc of seats & may scrape majority in 2nd round next Sun."
• "Why will Macron win more seats than the Left after obtaining roughly the same First Round score? Because the Left vote is concentrated in fewer constituencies and has fewer transfers to hope for in R2. The Macron alliance can expect many transfers from the centre-right."
• "[...] the Nupes alliance failed to produce its proclaimed surge for the Left. Its leader Jean Luc Melenchon will not be PM. The alliance did however prove a tactical triumph. By uniting the Left Nupes will win up to 200 seats in N Assembly & form the largest opposition bloc."

• Melenchon did not run in his Bouches-du-Rhône's 4th constituency (covering central Marseille) as he turned down the opportunity instead seeking the prime minister's position.
• Right-winger Eric Zemmour came in third place in the race for Var's fourth constituency covering Saint Tropez, meaning he will not take part in the run-off.
• Macron's Europe Minister Clement Beaune facing a tough challenge holding onto his Paris constituency, going through to a run off against a NUPES candidate having come in second place, trailing by 5%.