November 17, 2022 19:25 GMT
Post-Bullard Climb In Fed Terminal Rate Holds
- Bullard (’22) looking for a minimum 5-5.25% has helped spark a sizeable increase in the Fed Funds rate path today.
- FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures show a terminal of 5.0% now straddling May-Jun meetings (+8.5bps on the day) with a Dec’23 rate of 4.56% (+14bps).
- Putting into perspective, this terminal rate remains 8bps lower than after the Nov FOMC (and 15bp below highs the day after), whilst the Dec’23 rate is almost 25bps lower - see chart.
- Kashkari ('23) currently ongoing before Powell later at 2005ET is expected to steer clear of mon pol in a toast to Evans, leaving Collins (’22) scheduled to round out the week tomorrow on the labour market (including text).