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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessPost CPI Underperformance Extends, BAX Curve Less Inverted Since October
- The underperformance of GoCs to Tsys seen shortly after Canadian CPI still stands and has extended slightly: GoCs yields sit 0.5-1.5bp higher since CPI (for 4.5-5bps on the day) through 2-10Y tenors vs Tsy yields -3.5-4.5bps lower (for 2YY -2.9bps, 10YY +0.5bp on the day).
- BoC pricing has firmed on the day with +10bp for the Sep 6 decision (up from 7.5bp), building to a cumulative +22bp by year-end for what would be the highest close since Jul 27.
- This continues in BAX futures, with the BAU3/Z4 spread tightening to -60bps for currently its lowest in absolute terms since October.
- Any upward surprises for upcoming IPPI (Aug 18), retail sales (Aug 23) and GDP (Sep 1) could yet further complicate the September decision.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.