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Post CPI Underperformance Extends, BAX Curve Less Inverted Since October

CANADA
  • The underperformance of GoCs to Tsys seen shortly after Canadian CPI still stands and has extended slightly: GoCs yields sit 0.5-1.5bp higher since CPI (for 4.5-5bps on the day) through 2-10Y tenors vs Tsy yields -3.5-4.5bps lower (for 2YY -2.9bps, 10YY +0.5bp on the day).
  • BoC pricing has firmed on the day with +10bp for the Sep 6 decision (up from 7.5bp), building to a cumulative +22bp by year-end for what would be the highest close since Jul 27.
  • This continues in BAX futures, with the BAU3/Z4 spread tightening to -60bps for currently its lowest in absolute terms since October.
  • Any upward surprises for upcoming IPPI (Aug 18), retail sales (Aug 23) and GDP (Sep 1) could yet further complicate the September decision.

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