Free Trial

Post-Data Sell-Off, New 22 Year Inverted Yld Curve Lows

US TSY FUTURES

Treasury futures continue to extend lows, curves bear flattening with outsized selling in short end, 2YY hits 3.1980% high, 2s10s hits inverted low of -36.195 lvls not seen since Sep 2000, while Bond yield hit 3.0778% high has scaled back to 3.0514%.

  • US ISM and Durable Goods beat expectations, while Final services PM revised a touch lower, but still remains in contraction territory. Hawkish Fed messaging continues: StL Fed Bullard on CNBC earlier echoing Daly and Mester's messaging: Fed job "nowhere near" complete in reining in inflation while needing months of "convincing evidence" that infl has peaked.
  • Meanwhile, US Tsy annc fourth consecutive reduction in its quarterly sales of longer-term debt as borrowing needs diminished and signaled a pause going forward. Reductions in short-end auction sizes was not widely expected (2s, 3s), the rest was more or less in line by the looks of it.
  • Data on tap for Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts YoY, Initial Jobless Claims (260k est), Continuing Claims (1.383M est). Larger focus on Friday's July employment report (+250k est vs. +372K prior).
  • Current cross assets: spot Gold reversed early gains currently -1.49 at 1758.90, Crude weaker: WTI -0.72 at 93.70, stocks near recent session highs ESU2 +29.50 at 4123.25.
  • Currently, 2-Yr yield is up 11bps at 3.1612%, 5-Yr is up 8.2bps at 2.9347%, 10-Yr is up 6.9bps at 2.8177%, and 30-Yr is up 5.4bps at 3.0604%.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.