Post-Election Musings Take Centre Stage

Spot USD/ZAR has been oscillating around neutral levels and last changes hands at 18.7874, with political risk at the forefront. Bulls look for gains towards 19.0659, the 76.4% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 21 bear leg. Bears see the 20-EMA at 18.5085 as their initial target.

• The election returned a worse-than-expected result for the ruling African National Congress (ANC), forcing it into difficult coalition talks. USD/ZAR 1-month implied volatility has increased again amid uncertainty around coalition outcomes. The National Assembly must meet to elect the President within 14 days from the announcement of the election results.
• The composite BBG Commodity Index is little changed on the day, with the precious metals subindex sitting ~0.2% lower.
• SAGB yields are marginally higher across the curve, with 10-year breakeven inflation rate last seen at 6.83%.
• The latest reading of Absa Manufacturing PMI will be released at 10:00BST/11:00SAST. Naamsa vehicle sales may also hit the wires today.