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Post Powell Gains Pared, Closer To First Cut Fully Priced In Nov Again

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have pared gains seen during Powell’s Q&A but hold richer both since the initial decision and on the day.
  • 2Y yields lead declines on the day with -8.3bps (4.95%), with the curve switching from flattening pre-FOMC to steeper with 2s10s at -32.4bps rising more than 4bps since the decision.
  • TYM4 at 107-29 sits ~8 ticks higher since the announcement although is off an earlier high of 108-06+ seen in a continuation after Powell said it was unlikely the next move would be a hike.
  • It pushed through yesterday's high for above pre-ECI levels but stopped short of resistance at 108-11 (20-day EMA).
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit 6.5bps lower for end-2024 since the decision. Pertinent cumulative cuts: 16bp Sep (from 13bp), 23bp Nov (from 19bp) and 35bp Dec (from 28.5bp).
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  • Treasuries have pared gains seen during Powell’s Q&A but hold richer both since the initial decision and on the day.
  • 2Y yields lead declines on the day with -8.3bps (4.95%), with the curve switching from flattening pre-FOMC to steeper with 2s10s at -32.4bps rising more than 4bps since the decision.
  • TYM4 at 107-29 sits ~8 ticks higher since the announcement although is off an earlier high of 108-06+ seen in a continuation after Powell said it was unlikely the next move would be a hike.
  • It pushed through yesterday's high for above pre-ECI levels but stopped short of resistance at 108-11 (20-day EMA).
  • Fed Funds implied rates sit 6.5bps lower for end-2024 since the decision. Pertinent cumulative cuts: 16bp Sep (from 13bp), 23bp Nov (from 19bp) and 35bp Dec (from 28.5bp).