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CNH: Posts Firmest Gain In A few Weeks, But Lags Broader USD Weakness

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USD/CNH tracks just above 7.2780 in early Friday dealings. The bulk of the move lower in the pair came in the US session on Thursday when we broke down through 7.2800 (lows were seen at 7.2678). CNH gained 0.55% for Thursday's session, the strongest rise since Jan 24. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.2879, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker fell 0.14% to 100.51 (per BBG). This is fresh lows in the index back to mid Dec. 

  • USD/CNH was aided by the pullback in US yields, as the market analysed details of the PPI release from Thursday. US-CH yield differentials reversed Wednesday's gain, but USD/CNH looks to be broadly in line with these moves.
  • Details on reciprocal tariffs were vague, but the earliest date they can applied looks to be at the start of April, so this was also welcomed by the market. Potential scope for negotiations between now and April will be an on-going market focus point.
  • For USD/CNH technicals, the pair is back sub the 20 and 50-day EMA (the 20-day is back near 7.2950). The 100-day EMA on the downside remains intact, which is just under 7.2600.
  • In the equity space, the Golden Dragon index continued to track higher in Thursday US trade, up a further 1.2%. Onshore equities lagged the firmer Hong Kong trend from yesterday though.
  • On the data front we still await the Jan new loans/aggregate finance figures. 
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USD/CNH tracks just above 7.2780 in early Friday dealings. The bulk of the move lower in the pair came in the US session on Thursday when we broke down through 7.2800 (lows were seen at 7.2678). CNH gained 0.55% for Thursday's session, the strongest rise since Jan 24. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.2879, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker fell 0.14% to 100.51 (per BBG). This is fresh lows in the index back to mid Dec. 

  • USD/CNH was aided by the pullback in US yields, as the market analysed details of the PPI release from Thursday. US-CH yield differentials reversed Wednesday's gain, but USD/CNH looks to be broadly in line with these moves.
  • Details on reciprocal tariffs were vague, but the earliest date they can applied looks to be at the start of April, so this was also welcomed by the market. Potential scope for negotiations between now and April will be an on-going market focus point.
  • For USD/CNH technicals, the pair is back sub the 20 and 50-day EMA (the 20-day is back near 7.2950). The 100-day EMA on the downside remains intact, which is just under 7.2600.
  • In the equity space, the Golden Dragon index continued to track higher in Thursday US trade, up a further 1.2%. Onshore equities lagged the firmer Hong Kong trend from yesterday though.
  • On the data front we still await the Jan new loans/aggregate finance figures.