Potential Downside to Spot LNG Prices on China Contracted Supply: CICC

Contracted LNG sales prices set by China’s biggest state-owned suppliers set at $10/mmbtu could be a ceiling for spot purchases as key buyers have secured enough LNG contracts, according to a note from China International Capital Corp via Bloomberg.

• The combined supply increase estimated at 11bcm from domestic output and 10bcm from Russia and Central Asia pipeline imports is set against demand growth estimated at 21.2bcm this year.
• Extra LNG could only be required to boost stocks ahead of next winter, but high inventories could suppress global winter prices.
• Interests from price-sensitive buyers in transport and industrial sectors could return if prices fell to $7-$8/mmbtu.
• The global LNG market is forecast almost balanced this year with additional supply from Plaquemines LNG in mid-year and after the Freeport LNG resumption in mid-May.
• EU winter gas storage targets could be reached as early as August.