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Potential Fed Vacancy Picks [2/2]

FED
  • The second upcoming vacancy is when Richard Clarida’s term ends Jan 31, 2022. Lael Brainard will take over as Vice Chair, conditional on Senate confirmation, leaving a regular Board position open.
  • This is in addition to the longstanding vacancy as the seventh member of the Board.
  • Contenders have included Lisa Cook, a Michigan State University economist (supposedly supported by Sen. Brown) and William Spriggs, Chief Economist to the AFL-CIO, according to White House staff earlier this year.
  • Spriggs should be seen as a particularly dovish addition having criticized the FOMC’s more hawkish pivot on Wed.
  • However, barring some really radical picks, we would fade any market reaction, particularly in the shorter-end of the curve, as monetary policy is unlikely to change after the widely hawkish and coordinated FOMC tilt whilst inflation is such a hot topic (and one individual is only 1 of 12 votes).
  • A larger impact is likely political and what appointment compromises must be made elsewhere to appease the GOP in a 50/50 Senate, depending on who Biden wants as his picks.
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