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Potentially Past The Worst Of Housing Drag On GDP Growth

CANADA DATA
  • Building permits were clearly stronger than expected in Feb as they bounced 8.6% M/M (cons 2.0%) after -3.7% M/M, led by multi-unit resi and non-resi permits with single family flat.
  • It supports the bounce in housing starts along with the broader levelling out of the decline in home sales.
  • In doing so it matches the tentative bottoming in housing activity seen in the US, and whilst it’s for data prior to regional bank woes, Canadian banks have held up better through the period.
  • It adds to evidence that the max impact on growth from the housing slowdown, at least directly, appears to have been seen after dragging circa -1pp from Y/Y real GDP growth through much of 2022.

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