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Pound little moved on labour market data

UK DATA
  • As our data team point out in the previous bullet, in July 2021, 182k more people were in payrolled employment when compared with June 2021.
  • On those payroll numbers, the Feb 2020 peak was 29.06m, the Jul 2021 flash estimate is 28.86m payrolled employees. So there are only 0.7% less payrolled employees than the pre-covid peak.
  • Also based on the PAYE data: "The rate of growth in median pay fell between March and May 2020, but is now higher than the average growth before March 2020." In April the Y/Y change peaked at 9.7%, but in July it was estimated to have fallen to 6.4%. This suggests we won't see as much passthrough to inflation as some had feared when wage growth on the PAYE measure was close to 10%Y/Y.
  • As we expected, there has been very little impact for the pound, but the payroll data in particular will feed into the debate - pointing again towards a strengthening labour market but with wages rising by less than previously, not being accompanied by a passthrough to inflation expectations.
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