### POV: AUD BULLS FEAR MORE PAIN - Having...>

AUSSIE: ### POV: AUD BULLS FEAR MORE PAIN

- Having broken the key 0.7500 level, AUDUSD is now in outright bearish

territory with losses of over 3% since its Apr19 high (0.7813).

Fundamentals/technicals suggest there could be more pain to come.

- The RBA left rates on hold for the 19th straight meeting with an upbeat tone

on future economic growth. Despite this, Australia remains behind the global

trend with no rate hikes expected until 2019.

- The weaker market sentiment surrounding the commodity space, particularly

copper, has seen AUDUSD close lower 8 of the last 9 trading sessions. Seasonal

trends also suggest May is a bad month with losses in 7 of the last 8 years.

- Narrowing yield differentials continue to pressure with the AU-US 10y spread

touching multi-decade lows of -22.2.

Looking ahead - With no rate hikes priced in until 2019, market talk suggests

Friday's SoMP could interpret a more hawkish tone toward the RBA on growth and

inflation forecasts.