### POV: NO RATE CHANGE FROM BOC FOR.........>

CANADA: ### POV: NO RATE CHANGE FROM BOC FOR EIGHTH CONSECUTIVE ANNOUNCEMENT

Bank of Canada will leave target rate steady at 1.75% at its policy annc Wed at

1000ET/1400GMT followed by Monetary Policy Report at 1115ET/1515. MNI PINCH

model assigns 4% chance of 25bps cut Wed (5.3% wk ago), 10.9% chance of cut on

December 4.

- Economic data remains decent if not strong, precluding need to follow other

central banks in lowering rates. That said, most are wary of global trade

headwinds that may spur a rate cut in 2020.

- Base case: Steady as long as labor and housing data data remains strong, 1.75%

overnight rate may be on hold through early 2020.

- Dovish: Global slowdown due to US/China trade war catches up to Canada,

spurring the BoC to join other CBs in easing the target rate preemptively by

25bps Wed.

- Hawkish: Most unlikely scenario - global markets surge as US/China make

headway and sign Phase I agreement when meeting at APEC conference in Chile on

November 16-17.