### POV: RBA LIKELY TO CUT, WILL STRESS NEED....>

RBA: ### POV: RBA LIKELY TO CUT, WILL STRESS NEED FOR FISCAL LIFTING

- The RBA will likely deliver another 25bp cut to its cash rate on Tuesday,

following on from June's cut, which would leave the cash rate at a fresh record

low of 1.00%. RBA watchers have frontloaded their calls for RBA easing after an

unusually active period from RBA Gov. Lowe coupled with the minutes of the

Bank's June meeting, which noted that "given the amount of spare capacity in the

labour mkt & the econ more broadly, members agreed that it was more likely than

not that a further easing in monpol would be appropriate in the period ahead."

- The main arguments for immediate easing seems to be why wait & that not acting

straight away may result in the unwanted tightening of monetary conditions.

- Base Case: A 25bp cut with a focus on the labour mkt. Exp. the RBA to flag

further easing in the mins. Also exp. the RBA to stress need for fiscal lifting.

- Dovish case: A 25bp cut with calls for further immediate cuts, perhaps

outlined by RBA Governor Lowe in his evening address or in the mins, with a

particular focus on the Bank's lower NAIRU estimate.

- Hawkish Case: Anything that doesn't result in a cut this time out.