###POV: SEK'S RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE COULD.....>

SEK: ###POV: SEK'S RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE COULD REVERSE ON FURTHER DIVISIONS

AMONG RIKSBANK BOARD

-SEK's one of the poorest G10 performers both this week and across February as

the twin headwinds of poor inflation and dovish central bankers have pushed

trade-weighted SEK lower by over 5% from it's 2018 peak.

-Most recent Riksbank speeches noted that the board contemplated delaying their

forward guidance on policy tightening. As a result, NOK/SEK trades well above

its 200, 100 and 50DMAs and is on the cusp of breaking to the highest levels for

10 months (SEK1.0362 the level to watch).

-While the overall tone of Riksbank speakers is dovish, there is a risk that

further divisions could appear: Ohlsson, the deputy governor, most recently

voted for an immediate rate hike and there's a significant risk that the market

is under-pricing further board members leaning that way. Dovish Jansson (another

deputy gov.) covered for governor Ingves at the last press conference and

there's a risk that the market's gotten the wrong message on the Riksbank's

intentions.