MNI BRIEF: Inflation Risks Now Shifted To Downside-BOE Ramsden

MNI: Goolsbee Says Stalled Inflation Means Wait Before Moving

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 19

MNI BRIEF: China Hog Market More Balanced In Q2 - Ministry

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 619; OIL RIGS 511; GAS RIGS 106

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, UK Synd W/C 22 Apr, BoE APF Mon

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Powell Asked When The FOMC Expect A Meaningful Labor Market Slowdown

FED
  • Q: When does the FOMC expect to see a meaningful slowdown in the labor market, and how much weakness before rate pause / cuts?
  • A: You've seen a decline from very high levels of job creation last year and earlier this year to modestly slower job creation. Still quite robust. You're seeing some increase in initial claims for insurance, although that may have to do with seasonal adjustments. We're not sure that's actually real. There's some evidence that wages, average hourly earnings, they appear to be moderating. Not so yet from the other wage measures. We'll be getting the employment compensation index measurement on Friday. That's an important one, it adjusts for composition.
  • You anecdotally hear the level of concern on the part of businesses that they simply can't find workers. It's probably down a little bit from what it was, for example, late in the latter parts of last year.
  • There's a feeling that the labor market is moving back into balance. If you look at job openings or quits, you see them moving sideways or perhaps a little bit down. It's only the beginning of an adjustment.
  • If you look at the household survey, you see much lower job creation and the survey can be quite volatile; no jobs created in the last three months. That might be a signal that job creation is slower than we're seeing in the establishment survey. Executive summary, I'd say, there's some evidence that labor demand may be slowing a bit.
  • Labor supply, not so much. We have been disappointed that labor force participation really hasn't moved up since January. That may be related to another, big wave of COVID and there's evidence that's the case. We're not seeing much in the way of labor supply. Nonetheless, there' has been some progress on demand and supply getting back in alignment.
  • We need to see inflation coming down. We need to be confident that inflation is going to get back down to mandate consistent levels. That's not something we can avoid doing.
  • We think that the labor market can adjust because of the huge overhang of job openings of excess demand.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.