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Powell Says Inflation Now is Probably "Slightly Worse" Than Dec

FED

Q: Is your SEP projection on inflation still reasonable? What's the pathway to decelerating from 7% CPI to end-year?

  • A: I would say that since the Dec meeting the inflation situation is "about the same but probably slightly worse". I'd be inclined to raise my own 2022 core PCE inflation estimate, by a few tenths.
  • The range of FOMC participants' forecasts has been moving to the right for a year now. And if you look at other forecasters who do this for a living you've seen the same pattern. If the situation deteriorates further, our policy will have to address that; if meaningfully further, either in the time or the size dimension.
  • [Reiterates previous comments re supply chains clearing up; weaker fiscal impulse; etc bringing inflation down toward target]
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