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POWER: DE-FR Sept Spread Narrows

POWER

The German-French outright September power base-load spread has narrowed on Monday to the lowest since 23 July as the German front-month contract is tracking losses in European gas and carbon allowances, while the French equivalent is trading higher.

    • France Base Power SEP 24 up 3.9% at 72.45 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power SEP 24 down 0.2% at 92.35 EUR/MWh
    • EUA DEC 24 down 0.2% at 72.36 EUR/MT
    • TTF Gas SEP 24 down 1% at 39.23 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front month is pulling back but holding within the €38.5/MWh to €40.4/MWh range seen since Aug. 13 with Ukraine transit supply risks and Norwegian outages weighed against muted demand as storage approaches EU target levels.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is edging lower on Monday with losses in natural gas prices. The next EU EUA CAP 3 auction will clear at 11:00CET today.
  • The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast NW Europe suggested mean temperatures have been revised higher to remain around the seasonal normal until 22 August before rising back above normal until 25 August, when temperatures fall again.
  • In Germany, wind output is forecast at 8.69GW during base load on Tuesday, higher day on day. Solar PV capacity is also forecast to rise on the day to 12.62GW during base load according to SpotRenewables.
  • In France, nuclear availability was stable at 67% of capacity as of Monday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • The unplanned outage at 1.3GW Cattenom 3 has been extended until Monday 23:00 CET.
  • In France, wind output is forecast to rise on the day to 4.56GW during base load on Tuesday. Solar PV capacity is forecast to edge down on the day to 4.3GW on Tuesday during base load according to SpotRenewables.
  • Power demand in France is forecast at a maximum of 47.38GW on Monday and of 48.21GW on Tuesday according to Entso-E.
  • In Switzerland, planned maintenance at Axpo’s 365MW Beznau 2 reactor is scheduled to end on Monday 10:00 CET, remit data showed.
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