POWER: End of Day Power Summary: CWE Holds Onto Losses to Diverge From TTF

CWE front-month futures have held onto losses towards the end of the session to diverge from gains in both the emissions and TTF markets as temperatures in NW Europe are estimated to be above the norm heading into early December. Nordics have also settled in red territory amid a wetter outlook, with hydro stocks widening their 19-year avg surplus to a 2024 high.

• Nordic Base Power DEC 24 down 2.4% at 51.5 EUR/MWh
• France Base Power DEC 24 down 0.4% at 99.59 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power DEC 24 down 1.3% at 105.65 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.5% at 68.45 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas DEC 24 up 2.4% at 46.775 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal DEC 24 down 0.2% at 124.35 USD/MT
• TTF front-month prices have risen further since midday, driven by heightened risks from Ukraine's extended long-range missile strikes on Russia, with added upward pressure from higher-than-average storage withdrawals.
• EU ETS Dec24 is also trading in green to be slightly supported by TTF, although above-norm temperatures in NWE heading into December and losses in coal are keeping gains capped.
• Climate negotiations are yet to agree on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on Climate Finance, with the COP29 summit ending this Friday.
• German December clean spark spreads for a 55%-efficient gas plant have deteriorated significantly on the day, amid gains in EU gas prices due to increased supply risks.
• Speculator positioning in ICE German power futures turned more bearish last week with net long positionings decreasing slightly.
• The UK’s target to decarbonise its power system by 2030 requires an unprecedented pace of grid expansion.
• The UK-France IFA2 power interconnector experiences an unplanned outage, scheduled to last one hour.
• Italian hydropower reserves last week – calendar week 46 – dropped for the fifth consecutive week to reach its lowest since week 38 to be at 3.15TWh as rising demand, lower PV output and no precipitation in the hydro-intensive region of Torino weighed on stocks.
• Nordic hydropower reserves dipped to 85.4% capacity, or 108.38TWh by the end of week 46, from the previous week. The decline was driven by higher power demand and reduced nuclear output, which offset slightly increased precipitation. Reserves may face further pressure this week due to unplanned outages at Nordic nuclear plants.
• Hungary has introduced a bill to amend its nuclear plant contract with Russia, allowing cost adjustments and other modifications to ensure the delayed Paks expansion project proceeds smoothly.
• Slovakia plans to launch a tender for the construction of a new nuclear power plant in mid-2025 to pick a supplier in 2027.