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POWER: German Oct Power Tracks Weekly Net Fall

POWER

German front-month power is currently tracking a weekly net decline of 4.8%, driven by losses in EU gas and carbon allowances, while forecasts are suggesting milder weather from next week.

  • Germany Base Power OCT 24 up 0.7% at 78.88 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 24 up 0.4% at 65.69 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas OCT 24 up 1.4% at 35.67 EUR/MWh
  • TTF ticks higher to hold within the €34.67/MWh to €36.34/MWh range seen in recent days. Muted demand and high underground and floating storage are helping to ease tight supply fears amid curtailed pipeline supplies to Europe ahead of the winter heating season.
  • EU ETS Dec24 is stable today, resisting some of the gains in the natural gas market. The next EU EUA CAP3 auction will clear today 11:00 CET.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise on the day to 18.25GW on Saturday during base load, up from 12.13GW forecasted for Friday. Solar PV output is forecast to edge higher on Saturday to 12.09GW during peak load, up from 11.43GW forecasted for Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
  • The latest ECMWF weather forecast for NW Europe suggested mean temperatures below the seasonal normal until 17 September, before rising above normal.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast at a maximum of 62.41GW on Friday and of 53GW and 48.35GW on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, Entso-E data showed.

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