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US TSYS: PPI/PCE Details, Reciprocal Tariff Implementation Delay

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish near late session highs Thursday, back near Wednesday's pre-CPI levels despite higher than expected PPI and up-revisions this morning, while a delay in implementing reciprocal tariffs to early April buoyed market sentiment.
  • The PCE-relevant components of PPI have clearly set the tone with the market's dovish reaction to the release but the aggregate series were still notably stronger than expected. Overall PPI final demand inflation printed at 0.40% M/M sa (cons 0.3) after a heavy upward revision of 0.50% (initial 0.22) in Dec although that was partly offset by a downward revised 0.23% (initial 0.38) in Nov.
  • US President Trump has signed a measure ordering his administration (namely the USTR and Commerce Secretary) to propose country-by-country reciprocal tariffs. The tariff rates would be determined on a country-by-country basis, in what would appear to be a complex process.
  • Treasury Mar'25 10Y futures trade +21 at 108-29.5 after the bell vs 109-01 high, just below initial technical resistance at 109-08.5 (50-day EMA). 10Y yield -.0939 at 4.5269% while curves bull flattened: 2s10s -4.789 at 21.596, 5s30s -2.024 at 34.243.
  • Cross asset update: extended late session lows (BBDXY -8.37 at 1292.82), stocks rallied back over last Friday's highs (SPX Eminis +57.25 at 6130.0) when talk of reciprocity weighed heavily on stocks.
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  • Treasuries look to finish near late session highs Thursday, back near Wednesday's pre-CPI levels despite higher than expected PPI and up-revisions this morning, while a delay in implementing reciprocal tariffs to early April buoyed market sentiment.
  • The PCE-relevant components of PPI have clearly set the tone with the market's dovish reaction to the release but the aggregate series were still notably stronger than expected. Overall PPI final demand inflation printed at 0.40% M/M sa (cons 0.3) after a heavy upward revision of 0.50% (initial 0.22) in Dec although that was partly offset by a downward revised 0.23% (initial 0.38) in Nov.
  • US President Trump has signed a measure ordering his administration (namely the USTR and Commerce Secretary) to propose country-by-country reciprocal tariffs. The tariff rates would be determined on a country-by-country basis, in what would appear to be a complex process.
  • Treasury Mar'25 10Y futures trade +21 at 108-29.5 after the bell vs 109-01 high, just below initial technical resistance at 109-08.5 (50-day EMA). 10Y yield -.0939 at 4.5269% while curves bull flattened: 2s10s -4.789 at 21.596, 5s30s -2.024 at 34.243.
  • Cross asset update: extended late session lows (BBDXY -8.37 at 1292.82), stocks rallied back over last Friday's highs (SPX Eminis +57.25 at 6130.0) when talk of reciprocity weighed heavily on stocks.