Prabowo Increases Lead In Polls Ahead Of February Election

Presidential candidate Prabowo remains well in the lead in polls taken in the last few weeks but only in two does he have over 50% support, level required to avoid a runoff vote in June. These two polls are the most recent though and are signalling the greatest chance to date that Prabowo could win in the first round, and so polls will be watched closely in the weeks ahead to see if a runoff can be avoided. The election will be held on February 14.

• The SPIN and Indonesia Polling Stations polls show that Prabowo has support of around 51-52% but they vary on the other two candidates. The former has Anies in second place with 21.3% and Ganjar from the incumbent PDI-P on 19.2% compared with 18.7% and 23.5% in the latter survey. Either way the other two candidates are well behind Prabowo, who has popular President Jokowi’s son Gibran as his VP candidate.
• If we average the surveys taken during January to date with those in late December into early January, Prabowo has increased his lead this month to 47.9% from 46.6% while Anies has been steady around 24.5%. Ganjar has increased his support by almost 2pp to 22.3%.
• Prabowo’s past has been controversial but as President he has said he’ll continue President Jokowi’s policies. In Sunday's VP debate, Prabowo’s running mate Gibran said that Indonesia’s commodities should be processed locally and not exported and that the digital & green economies should be developed. Ganjar’s VP candidate Mahfud focussed on food security and the environment and promised to continue Jokowi’s programmes. The third VP candidate Muhaimin also talked about environmental responsibilities.