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MNI BRIEF: Japan Sep Consumer Confidence Falls, Gov Cuts View

(RPT)MNI INTERVIEW: Fed Upside Surprise To Drag On Housing-MBA

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Preliminary Estimates Eye Further Moderation In Core PCE

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
Homepagemarkets-real-timeCommoditiesBulletMarketsFixed Income NewsForeign Exchange NewsJPMorgan Market News Morgan Stanley Market News
  • Today’s core CPI accelerated from 0.16% to 0.28% M/M in August, with a large part of the move driven by a relative airfares contribution of +0.09pps (the PCE source for which are PPI and not CPI).
  • Combined with other details from the report, it sees the following preliminary core PCE estimates to be updated after tomorrow’s PPI data (with core PCE due Sep 29).
  • JPM sees 0.17% M/M and MS sees 0.15% M/M in Aug, moderating from the 0.22% in July and 0.21% in June, back consistent at or below the 2% target for the first time since Jul’22 and before that Feb’21.
  • MS go on to estimate PCE core services ex housing at 0.16% M/M after 0.46%. M/M.
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  • Today’s core CPI accelerated from 0.16% to 0.28% M/M in August, with a large part of the move driven by a relative airfares contribution of +0.09pps (the PCE source for which are PPI and not CPI).
  • Combined with other details from the report, it sees the following preliminary core PCE estimates to be updated after tomorrow’s PPI data (with core PCE due Sep 29).
  • JPM sees 0.17% M/M and MS sees 0.15% M/M in Aug, moderating from the 0.22% in July and 0.21% in June, back consistent at or below the 2% target for the first time since Jul’22 and before that Feb’21.
  • MS go on to estimate PCE core services ex housing at 0.16% M/M after 0.46%. M/M.