September 13, 2023 15:00 GMT
Preliminary Estimates Eye Further Moderation In Core PCE
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- Today’s core CPI accelerated from 0.16% to 0.28% M/M in August, with a large part of the move driven by a relative airfares contribution of +0.09pps (the PCE source for which are PPI and not CPI).
- Combined with other details from the report, it sees the following preliminary core PCE estimates to be updated after tomorrow’s PPI data (with core PCE due Sep 29).
- JPM sees 0.17% M/M and MS sees 0.15% M/M in Aug, moderating from the 0.22% in July and 0.21% in June, back consistent at or below the 2% target for the first time since Jul’22 and before that Feb’21.
- MS go on to estimate PCE core services ex housing at 0.16% M/M after 0.46%. M/M.