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Preliminary Payrolls Benchmark Revision Lower Than Some Expected

US DATA
  • The preliminary estimate of the payrolls benchmark revision based on the latest QCEW suggests the level of payrolls could be revised lower by -306k in the twelve month period up to March 2023.
  • This is smaller than a few estimates closer to -500k seen beforehand, and is a relatively small figure considering the just over 4mln jobs added over that period in the latest iteration of the data.
  • It gives a ballpark estimate for the finalized benchmark revision for payrolls growth to come with the Jan’24 report released in February.

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