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Presidential Election Tightens ​

US

The presidential election has tightened this week to the closest the race has been since February, according to data from Smarkets.

  • According to bettor Smarkets, former president Donald Trump remains the slight favourite with an implied probability of 46% of winning. Biden trails with an implied probability of 40%. On March 8, Trump held an advantage of more than 20% over Biden.
  • PredictIt and ElectionBettingOdds both show a similar tightening of the race, with the PredictIt market currently tied.
  • Biden's mini-surge in betting and prediction markets is likely due more positive polling, economic sentiment improving, Biden's State of the Union address kickstarting campaigning, and former Trump's financial concerns dragging on his campaign.

Figure: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

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The presidential election has tightened this week to the closest the race has been since February, according to data from Smarkets.

  • According to bettor Smarkets, former president Donald Trump remains the slight favourite with an implied probability of 46% of winning. Biden trails with an implied probability of 40%. On March 8, Trump held an advantage of more than 20% over Biden.
  • PredictIt and ElectionBettingOdds both show a similar tightening of the race, with the PredictIt market currently tied.
  • Biden's mini-surge in betting and prediction markets is likely due more positive polling, economic sentiment improving, Biden's State of the Union address kickstarting campaigning, and former Trump's financial concerns dragging on his campaign.

Figure: 2024 Presidential Election Winner

Keep reading...Show less