Presidential Poll Shows Erdogan Trailing Potential Opposition Candidate

A presidential opinion poll gauging public support ahead of the June 2023 election shows incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan trailing potential joint opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu by a narrow margin.

• Artıbir poll: Presidential election with possible joint candidates Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP): 53% (=), Erdoğan (AKP): 47% (=), +/- vs. 10-18 October 2022. Fieldwork: 21-30 November 2022. Sample size: 1,500
• A major influence on the outcome of the election is likely to be the nature of the opposition coalition that challenges Erdogan. A broad alliance involving the main opposition centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP), the nationalist Good Party as well as Kurdish parties would stand a good chance of ousting Erdogan.
• However, if the alliance is fractured or struggles to get large numbers of both urban voters and those from the Kurdish minority to polling stations then it could prove difficult to dislodge the long-standing president.
• Bloomberg: "With a critical election looming next year, Erdogan is burnishing his conservative credentials in an effort to appeal to voters. With inflation at a 22-year high and public discontent around the economy still rising, his conservative-nationalist alliance is doing everything they can to defeat a loosely knit opposition bloc."