Pressured In Early Trade On Monday, OPEC+ Cut Oil Production

TYM3 deals at 114-25+, -0-04, a touch off early lows after gapping lower at Monday’s open. OPEC+ announced a surprise oil production cut of more than 1 million barrels a day abandoning previous assurances it would hold supply steady link here.

• On Friday cash tsys finished 8-11bps richer across the major benchmarks.
• Tsys firmed through Friday's session, the core PCE deflator which is the Feds preferred inflation gauge was a touch softer than expectations. PCE price index decelerated from January's print but remains significantly higher than the Feds 2% goal.
• NY Fed President Williams slightly increased his inflation forecast since mid February. He noted he expected inflation to decline to around 3.25% this year before moving closer to the inflation target over the next two years.
• Fed dated OIS price a ~14bp hike into the May meeting with the terminal rate at 4.95%, there are ~60bps of cuts priced for 2023.
• In Asia today, Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China provides the highlight. Further out we have the ISM Manufacturing Survey and the final print of Manufacturing PMI. Fedspeak from Governor Cook will cross.