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FI Support Evaporates Amid Late Month End Selling

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Remains Vulnerable

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Late Risk Off Sees USDCAD Eye Cycle Highs

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BLOCK, Late Puts

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Bull Cycle Extends

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Price Signal Summary – Bund Futures Remain Bought on Dips

MARKET INSIGHT
  • S&P E-Minis extended the recovery into the Thursday close, touching 4004.75 in the process and nearing first key resistance at 4017.94. EUROSTOXX 50 futures extended gains early Wednesday before fading into the close. Nonetheless, this week’s price action means prices have taken out resistance at both 3504.00, the Jul 8 high, the 50-day EMA at 3553.60 as well as 3584.00, the Jun 27 high. This suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery.
  • EURUSD’s brief post-ECB rally stalled and fully reversed into the Thursday close, putting the pair flat through the London fix. The 20-day EMA resistance at 1.0258 was pierced, but the lack of a clear break higher keeps the technical picture unchanged for now. GBPUSD remains above the week’s lowest levels, but traded weaker Thursday. recovered from last week’s lows. This price action retains the sell-on-rallies theme, which keeps short-term gains considered corrective. EURJPY rallied to new weekly highs of 142.32 Thursday, but faltered ahead of the close, erasing the entirety of the move higher to finish flat. This keeps the outlook bearish, with focus on the downside trigger of 136.87.
  • Gold bounced solidly off the Thursday low of 1680.99, keeping prices inside the recent range, with buy-on-dips clearly the dominant strategy. For now, the outlook is bearish and the yellow metal remains in a downtrend. WTI futures traded under pressure into the Thursday close, briefly putting prices below the $95/bbl handle and nearing first support of the Jul 15 low at $91.64.
  • Bund futures came under initial pressure on the ECB rate decision, touching 149.69 before rebounding sharply. This reinforces the current buy-on-dips theme, with key support unchallenged. This keeps the broader theme positive following the recent break of 152.92, Jul 6 high. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish, with pullbacks proven corrective into the Thursday close. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high.
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  • S&P E-Minis extended the recovery into the Thursday close, touching 4004.75 in the process and nearing first key resistance at 4017.94. EUROSTOXX 50 futures extended gains early Wednesday before fading into the close. Nonetheless, this week’s price action means prices have taken out resistance at both 3504.00, the Jul 8 high, the 50-day EMA at 3553.60 as well as 3584.00, the Jun 27 high. This suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery.
  • EURUSD’s brief post-ECB rally stalled and fully reversed into the Thursday close, putting the pair flat through the London fix. The 20-day EMA resistance at 1.0258 was pierced, but the lack of a clear break higher keeps the technical picture unchanged for now. GBPUSD remains above the week’s lowest levels, but traded weaker Thursday. recovered from last week’s lows. This price action retains the sell-on-rallies theme, which keeps short-term gains considered corrective. EURJPY rallied to new weekly highs of 142.32 Thursday, but faltered ahead of the close, erasing the entirety of the move higher to finish flat. This keeps the outlook bearish, with focus on the downside trigger of 136.87.
  • Gold bounced solidly off the Thursday low of 1680.99, keeping prices inside the recent range, with buy-on-dips clearly the dominant strategy. For now, the outlook is bearish and the yellow metal remains in a downtrend. WTI futures traded under pressure into the Thursday close, briefly putting prices below the $95/bbl handle and nearing first support of the Jul 15 low at $91.64.
  • Bund futures came under initial pressure on the ECB rate decision, touching 149.69 before rebounding sharply. This reinforces the current buy-on-dips theme, with key support unchallenged. This keeps the broader theme positive following the recent break of 152.92, Jul 6 high. The short-term outlook in Gilt futures remains bullish, with pullbacks proven corrective into the Thursday close. Recent gains confirmed a resumption of the bull cycle that started Jun 16 - price cleared resistance at 114.55, the Jun 24 high.