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Price Signal Summary - Bunds Trade Through The 50-Day EMA

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, the S&P E-minis have found resistance this morning ahead of the 20-day EMA that intersects at 4408.26. This represents an important intraday resistance. Recent gains are likely part of a corrective cycle that is allowing a recent oversold condition to unwind. A deeper sell-off would signal a resumption of the downtrend and refocus attention on 4101.75, the Feb 24 low and bear trigger. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a downtrend. Recent weakness confirmed a resumption of the bear cycle and futures have recently cleared a number of key support levels. This signals scope for 3727.00, the Mar 25 2021 low on the continuation chart. The bear trigger is 3749.50, Feb 24 low. Resistance to watch is at 4049.50, the Feb 23 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD continues to trade above recent lows but remains vulnerable. The trigger for a resumption of weakness is 1.1106, Feb 24 low. Clearance of this level would open 1.1040, 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Mar ‘21 bull phase. Resistance is unchanged at 1.1280, Feb 14 low. The GBPUSD outlook remains bearish following a sharp sell-off last week that resulted in the break of a number of support levels. A resumption of bearish pressure would open 1.3163, Dec 8 low and a key support. USDJPY is lower this morning. Key short-term support at 114.16, the Feb 2 low, remains intact. The trend outlook remains bullish above this support. A move higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 116.35, this year’s high on Jan 4. Sub 114.16 levels would alter the picture.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains inside its bull channel, drawn from the Aug 9 low of last year. The top of the channel intersects at $1940.9 and represents a firm short-term resistance, ahead of last week’s Feb 24 high of $1974.3. Trend signals remain bullish but watch support at $1878.4, the Feb 24 low. A break of this level would instead suggest potential for a deeper pullback within the channel. Oil markets remain in an uptrend. WTI futures are pushing higher once again and scope is seen for a climb towards $102.01 - 3.382 projection of the Dec 2 - 9 - 20 price swing.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures are firmer this morning and importantly, have traded above the 50-day EMA at 168.44. The EMA represents a firm area of resistance. A clear break though could suggest scope for a stronger corrective recovery - this would open 169.68, 50.0% retracement of the Dec 8 - Feb 16 downleg. Gilts have broken out of the recent range signalling potential for a stronger short-term recovery. This opens 124.47 next and 125.04, 1.00 and 1.236 projections of the Feb 16 - 18 - 23 price swing.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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