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Price Signal Summary - EURUSD Bear Bear Cycle Extends

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis have continued to recover this week and remain above recent lows. Trend conditions are bearish though and a resumption of weakness would open 3735.00, the Jun 23 low. A break of this level would expose key support at 3639.00, the Jun 17 low and bear trigger. Clearance of 3950.00, Jun 28 high is required to strengthen a bullish case. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain above Tuesday’s low. Gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook is bearish. This week’s breach of support at 3384.00, Jun 16 low, reinforces bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend. The focus is on 3321.30, 50.0% of the major 2020 - 2021 upleg. Key short-term resistance is at 3584.00, the Jun 27 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD maintains a bearish tone and has traded lower again today. This week’s fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension lower within the bear channel drawn from the Feb 10 high. The focus is on 1.0018, the channel base. GBPUSD remains vulnerable. This week’s extension lower highlights a continuation of the downtrend and opens 1.1795, 0.764 projection of the Mar 23 - May 13 - 27 price swing. USDJPY is unchanged and still in consolidation mode. The trend condition is bullish and price is trading above support at 134.27, Jun 23 low. A resumption of gains would open 137.30 next, 1.50 projection of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing.
  • On the commodity front, Gold remains vulnerable following this week’s move lower that resulted in a breach of the bear trigger at $1787.00, May 16 low. The break confirms a resumption of the broader downtrend and opens $1706.3 next, 1.618 projection of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain vulnerable following this week’s move lower and break of support at $101.53, the Jun 22 low. Potential is for weakness towards $93.45 next. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a short-term bull cycle. The focus is on153.36, May 31 high. Gilts cleared resistance on Jul 1 at 114.55, the Jun 24 high. The break highlights potential for a stronger short-term recovery and this has opened 117.48, 1.236 projection of the Jun 16 - 24 - 29 price swing. The latest pullback is considered corrective.
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