MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, July 25

MNI BRIEF: Japan Govt Keeps Econ View, Cuts Exports

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY200 Bln via MLF Thurs; Rate Cut

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1321 Thurs; -1.92% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY235.1 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THURS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1321 THURS VS 7.1358

CBI Price Expectations for Three Months Ahead Lowest Since December 2020

MNI: UK JUL CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS -32

Broad-Based IFO Weakness Reinforces Narrative of Recovery Stall

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

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Price Signal Summary - FI Trend Needle Still Points South

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, short-term pullbacks in S&P E-Minis are considered corrective in nature. The bull cycle that started Mar 15, remains intact. The focus is on 4663.50, Jan 18 high. Watch initial resistance at 4633.44, 76.4% of the Jan 4 - Feb 24 downleg. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 4440.90. EUROSTOXX 50 futures breached resistance this week at the 50-day EMA. The break higher confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Mar 7. Also, the move higher has confirmed a bull flag breakout on the daily chart. The focus is on 3965.50 next, the Feb 23 high.
  • In FX, EURUSD is lower this morning but maintains a firmer short-term tone following this week’s gains and the break of key near-term resistance at 1.1137, Mar 17 high. The break paves the way for strength towards 1.1232 initially, 61.8% of Feb 10-Mar 7 sell-off. Note that the pair also traded above the 50-day EMA, at 1.1147, but has failed to remain above the average. This is a potential concern for bulls. Key support to watch is at 1.0945, the Mar 28 low. GBPUSD still appears vulnerable following the pullback from 1.3298, Mar 23 high. Prices have this week breached 1.3120, the Mar 22 low and this opens 1.3000, Mar 15 low and the bear trigger. Key resistance remains the 50-day EMA, at 1.3299 today. A break would signal a reversal. USDJPY remains in a corrective cycle following the pullback from Monday’s 125.09 trend high. Initial support has been established at 121.28, Thursday’s low. A break of this level would allow for an extension lower and open 120.95, the Mar 24 low ahead of the 120.00 handle. Initial resistance is seen at 123.20, the Mar 30 high.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is consolidating but remains vulnerable. The yellow metal traded lower Tuesday but recovered from the day low. Key support is seen at the 50-day EMA, at $1905.8, just ahead of the Mar 15 low of $1895.3. Both have been probed this week, a clear break would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Initial resistance is at $1966.1, Mar 24 high. In the Oil space, WTI has traded lower today and through Tuesday’s low of $98.44. The focus is on 50-day EMA at $97.30. A break would signal scope for a deeper pullback.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures remain bearish despite yesterday’s gains. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 156.00 handle. Resistance is at 160.46, the 20-day EMA. Gilts are consolidating - this is still seen as a pause in the downtrend. The focus is on 119.75, 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb. Resistance is at 121.70, the 20-day EMA.
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
Fixed Income Technical AnalysisForeign Exchange Technical AnalysisHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

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