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Price Signal Summary - Recent Weakness In EURUSD Appears To Be A Correction

OUTLOOK
  • In FX, recent weakness in EURUSD has recovered but remains closer to its recent low. The latest move down appears to be a correction. The trend condition remains bullish following a bear channel breakout on May 15 - the channel was drawn from the Dec 28 high. MA studies have also crossed and are in a bull-mode position. A resumption of gains would open 1.0933, 61.8% of the Dec 28 - Apr 16 bear leg. Next support is at 1.0783, 38.2% retracement of the Apr 16 - May 16 rally.
  • GBPUSD bulls remain in the driver’s seat, however, near-term a corrective cycle has started following the reversal from Tuesday’s 1.2801 high. Initial support to watch is 1.2657, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 1.2618 and marks a more important support point. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 1.2803, the Mar 21 high and 1.2859, a 1.236 projection of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing.
  • A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in play for now, despite today’s pullback. Recently, resistance at 156.74, the May 14 high and 157.00, 61.8% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off, has been breached. A continuation higher would open 157.99, the May 1 high. For bears, a stronger reversal would again refocus attention on 154.39, the 50-day EMA, and 153.45, trendline support drawn from the Dec 28 low. Clearance of these two price points would be bearish.
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