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Lower And Through Support


Risk Appetite Resumes


In A Range

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  • In the equity space, S&P E-minis have traded to fresh all-time highs once again. The contract this week tested the 50-day EMA at 4145.50 and the average provided support, reinforcing bullish conditions. Attention turns to 4300.00. EUROSTOXX 50 futures found support Jun 21 at 4015.00. Attention is on the Jun 18 sell-off that in pattern terms is a bearish engulfing candle and signals a potential S/T top. The key directional triggers are; 4015.00, Jun 21 low and 4153.00, Jun 17 and the bull trigger
  • In FX, the EURUSD outlook is unchanged and remains bearish following last week's sharp sell-off. The focus is on 1.1837 next, 76.4% of the Mar 31 - May 25 rally. GBPUSD remains vulnerable following last week's bearish pressure and recent gains are considered corrective. Attention is on 1.3717 next, Apr 16 low. The bear trigger is 1.3787, Jun 21 low. USDJPY edged higher Thursday and delivered a fresh 2021 high, following this week's print above Y110.97, Mar 31 high and the previous bull trigger. This cements the uptrend and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Attention is on 111.30/47, the Mar 26, 2020 high and 1.0% 10-dma envelope.
  • On the commodity front, Gold continues to consolidate. The outlook remains weak and the current consolidation appears to be a bear flag. This reinforces a bear theme and the focus is on $1756.2, low Apr 29. The Oil market trend conditions are bullish. Brent (Q1) focus is $76.97, 1.23 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing. WTI (Q1) sights are set on $75.01, 1.382 projection of Mar 23 - May 18 - May 21 price swing.
  • Within FI, Bund futures have this week probed support at 171.80, Jun 17 low. A stronger sell-off would expose 171.37, Jun 3 low and 170.99, Mar 31 low and a key short-term support. Key support to watch in Gilt futures is unchanged at 126.70, Jun 3 low.