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Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Fail To Clear The 50-Day EMA

MARKET INSIGHT
  • In the equity space, S&P E-Minis have failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4169.30. The pullback signals the potential end of a correction between May 20 - 31. A deeper pullback would pave the way for weakness towards the key support and bear trigger at 3807.50, May 20 low. Key short-term resistance, just above the 50-day EMA, is at 4202.25, May 31 high. EUROSTOXX 50 futures traded lower Thursday and price is once again below the 50-day EMA, which intersects at 3744.50. An extension lower would open support at 3576.00, the May 19 low. The major support and bear trigger is still far-off at 3466.00, May 10 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 3857.00, Jun 6 high and represents a bull trigger.
  • In FX, EURUSD traded lower Thursday. This resulted in a print below support at 1.0627, the Jun 1 low. The move lower also means channel resistance at 1.0733 remains intact. The channel is drawn from the Feb 10 high and the top remains a key resistance. A clear break is required to strengthen bullish conditions. For bears, an extension lower would open 1.0533, the May 20 low. GBPUSD remains above Tuesday’s low of 1.2431 and this level represents a key short-term support. Attention is still on the 50-day EMA, at 1.2673. A break is required to strengthen bullish conditions. A reversal lower and breach of 1.2431 would expose 1.2317, the May 17 low. USDJPY remains in a clear uptrend and this week’s gains have confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend. Sights are set on 135.00 and 135.15, the Jan 31 2002 high and a key congestion area. Trend conditions are overbought however this does not appear to be a concern for bulls at this stage.
  • On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and remains in consolidation mode. Firm resistance is still seen at the 50-day EMA, which intersects at $1871.7 today. A break of this average is required to suggest scope for stronger gains. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on the key support and bear trigger at $1787.0, May 16 low. Initial support to watch is $1828.6, Jun 1 low. In the Oil space, WTI futures remain bullish and the path of least resistance remains up. The focus is on $123.35, 1.236 projection of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing.
  • In the FI space, Bund futures traded lower again Thursday as the current bear leg extends. Scope is seen for a move towards 146.68, 1.618 projection of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing. Gilts remain in a downtrend and the focus is on weakness towards 113.56, 2.50 projection of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing.

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