MNI BRIEF: Trudeau Says Canada Tax Holiday Won't Boost CPI

TRUDEAU: CAN'T GUARNATEE MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN USMCA

TRUDEAU SAYS TAX BREAK WON'T STIMULATE INFLATION

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, November 21

MNI BRIEF: China To Enhance Support For Foreign Trade - MOFCOM

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: UK Synd; EU-Bond Auction on Monday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -3 BCF TO 3,969 BCF NOV 15 WK

MNI: US NAR: OCT EXISTING HOME SALES 3.96M SAAR

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Pricing Of Fed Cuts Moderates On NFP Report, Headline & Strong Wages Dominate

STIR

The stronger parts of the NFP survey dominate when it comes to initial market reaction, with hawkish repricing being driven by the much firmer-than-expected NFP release and strong wage numbers.

  • FOMC-dated OIS now shows ~39bp of cuts through year end vs. ~48bp ahead of the data.
  • Further forwards, ~14bp of cuts are now priced through the Sep FOMC vs. ~21bp heading into the release, while a 25bp cut is no longer fully priced through the Nov FOMC (~22bp of cuts are priced through that juncture).
  • A reminder that we noted that recent positioning adjustments and the move away from hawkish cycle extremes meant that the pre-data market setup presented greater two-way risk than what was seen just a few short weeks ago (when the same measures provided dovish risks).
  • Particular focus falls on SFRM4 in the wake of yesterday’s notable buying of that contract, with the contract ~3bp lower in the time since the data crossed.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
FOMC Calendar Market NewsHomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
FOMC Calendar Market NewsHomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.