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Pricing Out Of Hikes Boosts Inflation Expectations

STIR FUTURES
  • Eurodollars are off session highs but nevertheless have unwound 17.5bps of implied hikes in Dec’22 and 17bps in Dec’23 today.
  • The rate path continues to have larger hikes through the whites and reds compared to just after the January meeting but terminal rates are now lower, 5bps in Dec’24 and 10.5bps in Dec’25.
  • This has however further supported market-based inflation expectations measures. 5Y (3.21%) and 10Y (2.63%) breakevens touch new highs for the day and even 5Y5Y inflation swaps (2.47%) have continued the uptrend of the past few days.
  • This leaves scope for potentially larger inversion of the curve as front-end pricing continues to show an aggressive hiking path to clamp down on inflation fears against medium-term growth concerns.

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