CROATIA
The governing centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and its coalition allies have retained a plurality of seats in parliament in the 17 April legislative elections, but having seen its seat total shrink it will require the support of other parties to form a majority gov't. Pro-EU PM Andrej Plenkovic faces a potentially difficult task in putting together a workable coalition to cross the 76-seat threshold required for a majority.
- His HDZ holds 61 seats according to near-final results. The options to reach the threshold are to work with the main opposition centre-left populist 'Rivers of Justice' alliance, headed by the Social Democratic Party of President Zoran Milanovic. Having served as PM from 2011-16, overseeing Croatia's entry to the European Union, Milanovic's rhetoric has turned in a more eurosceptic, populist direction. He has criticised Plenkovic's policy of providing support for Ukraine and decrying Brussels' influence in Croatia politics. Rivers of Justice won 42 seats.
- The other potential coalition allies for Plenkovic are the right-wing nationalist Homeland Movement, or more likely the social conservative Bridge of Independent Lists (MOST-HS), alongside a number of smaller and minority list parties.
- Croatia sits as one of the eurozone's smallest economies, but nevertheless its steadfast backing of the EU and Ukraine has led to it being seen as a reliable partner for Brussels. Greater influence for soft eurosceptics or anti-Ukraine populists in any eventual coalition could erode this perception and engender greater political uncertainty in the Western Balkans.
Chart 1. Croatia Parliamentary Election, Results with 99.77% of Votes Counted, Seats
Source: izbori.hr, MNI
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