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Projections Indicate Right-Wing Alliance Holds Decisive Lead

ITALY

Italy's centre-right bloc is projected to take 42.7% of the vote in the lower house election, according to the latest (1:50 CET) update from Rai News based on preliminary results. The centre-left remains far behind at 26.8%, with the non-aligned Five Star Movement expected to win 16.0%.

  • The centre-right alliance is well-ahead in the upper house election, with the latest Rai News' projection (1:46 CET) putting it on 43.3%. The centre-left bloc lags with 26.4% and the Five-Star Movement may garner 16.2% of the vote.
  • The assessment that the FdI-Lega-FI will secure control over both houses of parliament still stands, as does the expectation that the right-wing alliance won't have sufficient majority to freely enact constitutional amendments. This means Italy will likely avert the worst-case scenario from a market perspective.
  • The centre-left Democratic Party conceded defeat as it gears up to become the main opposition force in Italy's parliament. It is the Five Stars that has most reasons for optimism on the opposition side, having managed to engineer a rebound in flagging support over the past few weeks, with projections estimating their vote share at mid-teens.
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