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Prospect Of Trump Indictment Does Little To Change 2024 Equation

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The news that former President Donald Trump may face criminal charges in a New York City investigation over alleged hush money paid to Stormy Daniels has done little to affect the calculus for the 2024 presidential election.

  • According to Smarkets, Trump is still favoured to take the Republican Party nomination with an implied probability of 51% compared to 34% of closest rival Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) who has seen his post-midterm election momentum evaporate.
  • Some Trump critics have warned that an unsuccessful prosecution may have a “rally around the flag” effect - galvanising support for Trump in the GOP primary.
  • Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH), a regular critic of Trump, said: “A lot of the Democrats have misplayed this, in terms of building sympathy for the former president. And it does drastically change the paradigm as we go into the ’24 election...”
  • Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), said that New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg, the man leading the case, had “done more to help Donald Trump get elected president than any single person in America today.”

Figure 1: Republican Party Presidential Primary 2024 (Smarkets)

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The news that former President Donald Trump may face criminal charges in a New York City investigation over alleged hush money paid to Stormy Daniels has done little to affect the calculus for the 2024 presidential election.

  • According to Smarkets, Trump is still favoured to take the Republican Party nomination with an implied probability of 51% compared to 34% of closest rival Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) who has seen his post-midterm election momentum evaporate.
  • Some Trump critics have warned that an unsuccessful prosecution may have a “rally around the flag” effect - galvanising support for Trump in the GOP primary.
  • Governor Chris Sununu (R-NH), a regular critic of Trump, said: “A lot of the Democrats have misplayed this, in terms of building sympathy for the former president. And it does drastically change the paradigm as we go into the ’24 election...”
  • Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC), said that New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg, the man leading the case, had “done more to help Donald Trump get elected president than any single person in America today.”

Figure 1: Republican Party Presidential Primary 2024 (Smarkets)