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Pullback In Risk Weighs On A$, Not Yet Oversold

AUD

Risk sentiment weighed on the Aussie on Friday. It was down 1.2% on the day and 2.2% over the week. It is currently trading at 0.6732, close to its end 2022 low. Equity markets were down and the USD index rose 0.7%.

  • AUDUSD is currently finding support around the 100-day moving average of 0.673. On Friday the pair reached a low of 0.6719, which is also a support level. Technical conditions are yet to hit oversold, so currently a corrective rally has a low likelihood.
  • Aussie underperformed the G10 with only the yen doing worse on Friday. AUDJPY is trading around 91.80. AUDNZD trended down but has started Monday at 1.0918. Aussie was also lower against the euro and pound on Friday and is now at 0.6380 and 0.5629 respectively.
  • Equity markets were sharply lower on Friday with the Eurostoxx down 1.9% and the S&P 500 -1.1% but the FTSE down only 0.4%. VIX finished up about 0.5pp to 21.7%. Oil prices rose over a percent and WTI finished at $76.45/bbl after a low of $74.09. LME metal prices fell 2.3% on Friday to be down 5.2% on the week. Iron ore is also lower to just under $124/t.
  • Today Q4 company profits and inventories are released. The focus of the week is likely to be January retail sales on Tuesday and Q4 GDP and January CPI on Wednesday.
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