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Pullback in USD Index Hits Pause, GBP in Focus Ahead of Autumn Statement

FOREX
  • The USD sits steadier against all others in G10, putting pause to the pullback in the USD Index that persisted into the Monday close. The USD Index has steadied around the 200-dma at 103.621, which may signal a near-term pause ahead of any resumption of the downtrend off the October high.
  • JPY is the poorest performer ahead of the Wednesday crossover, helping EUR/JPY snap a four session losing streak. Modest weakness in the JPY comes despite the Bank of Japan cutting the size of their longer-end bond buying Rinban operation, which resulted in a slightly steeper local curve. GBP/JPY trades back above 186.50, with 187.16 the first intraday resistance ahead of 187.39, the 76.4% retracement of the pullback from the cycle high posted on Nov14.
  • GBP likely to be a focus going forward, with the UK Chancellor's Autumn Statement set to be delivered from approximately 1230GMT/0730ET. Chancellor Hunt is seen detailing a cut to business taxes and national insurance, with many watching for any clues on the timing of a potential general election in 2024. GBP/USD trades just below the week's highs of 1.2559, with the short-term outlook seen positive on the break of the 1.2504 100-dma.
  • Today sees the early release of the weekly jobless claims data due to the Thanksgiving holidays that kick off tomorrow. The release of the final November UMich sentiment survey also crosses - which markets may be wary of considering the considerable upside revision for inflation expectations at the October release. The speaker schedule is busier, with ECB's Centeno, Nagel set to speak as well as BoC's Macklem.
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