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Pulling Back After Powell's Surprise Yesterday

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have sold-off across the curve after yesterday's sharp reaction to Powell’s comments about retiring the word transitory and going ahead with accelerating taper. This has seen the short-end continue to sell-off and the long end partially unwind yesterday’s rally.
  • The sell-off has been led by the belly, with 2Y yields up 3.4bps at 0.599%, 5Y +6.0bps at 1.219%, 10Y +4.8bps at 1.492% and 30Y +3.0bps at 1.821%.
  • With 2Y yields now back at pre-Omicron levels but the 10Y being more restrained, the 2s10s spread is the flattest it’s been since very early this year at 89bps.
  • TYH2 futures sold off in earlier trading but have since stabilised at 130-11, down 0-15 on the day and back where they started yesterday.
  • Fed Chair Powell and Tsy Sec Yellen have their House testimony today at 1000ET/1500GMT, unlikely to repeat yesterday’s surprise at the Senate but nevertheless to be watched closely.
  • Busy data schedule today including MBA mortgage apps, ADP employment (cons. 525k from 571k), the finalised PMI for Nov and new ISM manufacturing survey for Nov.
  • NY Fed buy-ops: Tsy 4.5Y-7Y appr $5.275B at 1120ET.
  • Issuance is purely bills-focused again today: $40B 8D and $40B 119D CMB auctions.
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