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Q&A Continued


Q: How big are risks of the unemployment rate rising, and job growth turning
negative this summer?

  • A: We're watching this high frequency data. Nobody's had a good record
    lately of predicting what the monthly labor market reports are going to say.
    May / June stronger than anyone expected, so some humility is appropriate
    in terms of saying we understand where this is going. But there's evidence
    in high freq data, surveys, etc, and it looks like we're seeing a slowdown in
    the rate of growth. That might be short-lived, might not be - seems related
    to spike in cases that began mid-June.
  • Data over next couple months will answer that question; we need to wait
    and see. there's clearly a risk we're going to see a slowdown in the rate of
    growth, in economic activity, and in hiring. It might still be at a robust
    level. We will not know until we start to see more data come in.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 |

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