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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessQ1 GDP Preview - 0830ET
- Q1 GDP lands at 0830ET, with consensus 2.5% and the BoC’s April forecast of 2.3% annualized after Q4’s surprisingly soft 0.0% on the back of a heavy drag from inventories.
- With the Bank estimating potential growth at 2.3% in 2023, it would mark a quarter with zero progress in demand softening to allow supply to move in better balance.
- Being the last major release before the BoC decision on Jun 7, a beat could see the 25bp hike priced later in the year start to be expected next week having been between 1/4 and 1/3 odds in recent days.
- In the separate monthly data, analysts see power outages in Quebec and the federal workers’ strike disrupting April GDP, with CIBC and RBC looking for another slight decline after the -0.1% M/M indicated by the March advance. RBC estimate the PSAC strikes shaved off 0.3pps from April GDP.
- This latest monthly momentum into Q2 could help bias market reaction to the quarterly data the BoC focuses on.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.