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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Expectations for the Q2 GDP report tomorrow will benefit from several factors in today's releases of June data:
- Stronger than expected shipments of capital goods non-defense ex-aircraft, which beat consensus at +0.7% M/M (+0.3% expected) and a revision to prior (+1.0% M/M from +0.8%). That's used for the business investment component in GDP.
- Narrower-than-expected trade deficit (-$98.2B vs -$104.0B prior and -$103.0B expected).
- Higher than expected wholesale inventories (+1.9% M/M vs +1.5% expected, with a modest 0.1pp upward revision to prior) and retail (+2.0% vs 1.0% epected, with prior revised up 0.5pp).
- BBG consensus is currently -0.4% for Q2 advance GDP.
- For those watching the Atlanta Fed Nowcast today to see if they revise up their final Q2 estimate from -1.6% vs the last reading on Jul 19, they likely will. Of note, inventories, which they concede are difficult to predict, is by far the biggest drag on GDP growth (-2.5pp) in their Q2 estimate.
Source: Atlanta Fed
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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