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Q2 Remains Record For GDP Plunge

GILT SUMMARY

Having lacked direction in early trade, gilts sold off after midday with the curve bear steepening.

  • The Dec-20 gilt future trades at 136.13, towards the bottom end of the day's range (L: 136.00 / H: 136.60)
  • Gilt cash yields are 2-4bp higher on the day. Last yields: 2-year -0.0323%, 5-year -0.0633%, 10-year 0.2207%, 30-year 0.7577%. The 2s30s spread is 1bp narrower.
  • Short sterling futures are 0.5-2.0 ticks lower.
  • The final estimate of Q2 GDP was only marginally better than the previous estimate (-19.8% Q/Q vs -20.4%).
  • The BoE's Andy Haldane warned that the recovery would be at risk if there was "contagious pessimism" if there was too much focus on the Q2 data rather than the subsequent rebound.
  • The data calendar is now largely exhausted for the week. The September manufacturing print tomorrow will be a final estimate and now expected to change from the initial reading.
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