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Free AccessQ3 Flash GDP Shows Stagnation
Swedish flash Q3 GDP printed at 0.0% Q/Q and -1.2% Y/Y, below consensus expectations of +0.3% and -0.8% respectively. The print came in slightly above the Riksbank's September forecasts of -0.2% Q/Q and -1.4% Y/Y.
- The September monthly indicator showed a -0.5% M/M (vs a downwardly revised -0.5% prior) and -3.0% Y/Y (vs +0.1% prior). The monthly indicator has been a little firmer across Q3 compared to Q2, but remains volatile month-to-month. Despite this, it is still consistent with the weakening economy displayed by the quarterly print.
- The detailed breakdown of the quarterly number is released next month - after the Riksbank's November meeting - but forward looking indicators such as the Economic Tendency Survey continue show further deterioration ahead, which the Riksbank will need to balance against firmer than expected September inflation. October's inflation print, released on Nov 14, will be key.
- EURSEK and NOKSEK trade broadly unchanged since the release, with markets more focused on this week's major global macro events and geopolitical developments, rather than the more backward-looking GDP print.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.