Q3 Volumes Better Than Expected, But Y/Y Momentum Still Weak

Q3 NZ retail sales volumes were unchanged on the Q2 outcome. This was better than the consensus expectation of a -0.7% dip. in y/y terms we were at -3.5%, only a slightly improvement on the Q2 y/y outcome at -3.5%.

• NZ Stats noted the following industries moves:
• motor vehicle and parts retailing – down 3.4 percent
• hardware, building, and garden supplies – up 2.9 percent
• fuel retailing – down 3.4 percent
• supermarket and grocery stores – up 1.0 percent
• clothing, footwear, and personal accessories – up 4.0 percent.

From a trend standpoint, retail volumes are still 6% sub end 2021 highs. At the margin, the result paints a more resilient consumer spending picture, particularly given the detail in terms of where the strength was in some of the spending categories. Note we get the next RBNZ meeting next Wednesday.