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NEW ZEALAND: Q4 GDP Forecast To Be Slightly Stronger Than RBNZ Expects

NEW ZEALAND
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The focus of this week is likely to be Q4 GDP released on Thursday. The production measure is forecast to rise 0.4% q/q but still be down 1.4% y/y, slightly higher than the RBNZ’s February forecast of 0.3% q/q. Most estimates are between 0.3% and 0.5%. 

  • On Wednesday, Q4 current account data are released. They are forecast to show a narrowing in the deficit to NZ$6.65bn from NZ$10.85bn in Q3. The share of GDP in the year to Q4 is also projected to decline further to 6.1% from 6.4%. The ratio has been trending lower since it peaked at 9.2% in Q4 2022 and 6.1% would be the lowest since the pandemic-era Q3 2021.
  • Q1 Westpac consumer confidence is also out on Wednesday. The index troughed in Q2 and posted its highest level since Q4 2021 of 97.5 in Q4. The monthly ANZ consumer confidence data are slightly lower in Q1 than Q4.
  • February merchandise trade data are released on Friday. Exports have been rising strongly with strong growth to all major destinations. With still weak domestic demand weighing on imports, the trade deficit has narrowed substantially since Q3 2024.
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The focus of this week is likely to be Q4 GDP released on Thursday. The production measure is forecast to rise 0.4% q/q but still be down 1.4% y/y, slightly higher than the RBNZ’s February forecast of 0.3% q/q. Most estimates are between 0.3% and 0.5%. 

  • On Wednesday, Q4 current account data are released. They are forecast to show a narrowing in the deficit to NZ$6.65bn from NZ$10.85bn in Q3. The share of GDP in the year to Q4 is also projected to decline further to 6.1% from 6.4%. The ratio has been trending lower since it peaked at 9.2% in Q4 2022 and 6.1% would be the lowest since the pandemic-era Q3 2021.
  • Q1 Westpac consumer confidence is also out on Wednesday. The index troughed in Q2 and posted its highest level since Q4 2021 of 97.5 in Q4. The monthly ANZ consumer confidence data are slightly lower in Q1 than Q4.
  • February merchandise trade data are released on Friday. Exports have been rising strongly with strong growth to all major destinations. With still weak domestic demand weighing on imports, the trade deficit has narrowed substantially since Q3 2024.